(April 10): Oil pared gains and most Asian stocks rose as investors positioned ahead of US-Iran ceasefire talks scheduled to take place in Pakistan this weekend.
Brent trimmed its advance to just 0.2% from an earlier gain of as much as 1% as President Donald Trump said he was “optimistic” about a deal with Iran but later threatened Tehran over charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also accused Iran of doing a “poor job” of letting energy supplies flow.
MSCI’s equity gauge for Asia Pacific climbed 0.9%, heading for its first weekly gain since February. Technology shares — seen as less exposed to the Iran war — advanced after CoreWeave Inc struck another, much larger US$21 billion ($26.75 billion) deal to supply computing power to Meta Platforms Inc. South Korean shares — a bellwether for artificial intelligence investment — jumped 2.3%.
Traders are watching the shaky ceasefire and planned US-Iran talks in Islamabad starting Saturday for clues on the market’s next move. While oil is headed for its biggest weekly loss in more than nine months and global stocks are set for a second week of gains, sustaining the rally will depend on confidence that the truce holds and oil flows smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Not much matters for the market other than the durability of the ceasefire, shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz and ultimately, whether a bona fide permanent deal is struck,” said Bradford Smith, a fund manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
In other market moves, US equity-index futures fluctuated amid lingering tensions as Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of the strait weighed on sentiment. Gold was flat, trading around US$4,760 an ounce, while the dollar strengthened against most of its Group-of-10 peers.
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Treasuries snapped a four-day gain as investors awaited US inflation data to see the impact of higher oil prices from the Iran war.
The South Korean won was a touch weaker after the country’s central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, signalling a cautious stance.
The market mood remains cautious as Trump’s declaration signals the US may oppose any new arrangement where Iran uses leverage over the strait to charge tolls. Iran has previously suggested that the fees could be used to rebuild from the war.
See also: Stock rally stumbles as oil’s rebound damps mood
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon, with the focus on disarming Tehran-aligned Hezbollah. Trump has asked him to scale back strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran, NBC News reported.
Elsewhere, data published Thursday showed the US economy expanded at a slower pace than previously estimated in the final months of 2025. Consumer spending barely rose in February amid persistent inflation that’s set to accelerate due to the war.
The latest US numbers don’t reflect the recent surge in energy prices, but Friday’s consumer price index will capture some of that impact, said Bret Kenwell at eToro. Economists project a 0.9% increase in CPI — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022.
“Headline risk pertaining to the war remains far and away the biggest driver of volatility,” Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “However, inflation data also presents meaningful event risk.”
Corporate highlights:
- A US$7 billion private credit fund managed by Carlyle Group Inc capped redemptions after investors asked to pull 15.7% of the shares in the first quarter.
- Intel Corp said Alphabet Inc’s Google has committed to using future generations of its Xeon processors and other chips.
- Pacific Investment Management Co is looking to sell a portion of the US$14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle Corp data centre in Michigan, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
- Chevron Corp said its production fell as much as 6% in the first quarter due in part to the Iran war, echoing a similar disclosure from Exxon Mobil Corp earlier this week.
- Tata Consultancy Services Ltd’s quarterly earnings topped analysts’ estimates after the information technology provider curbed costs to cope with slowing demand in an era of geopolitical tensions.
Some of the main moves in markets:
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Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10.56am Tokyo time
- Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.2%
- Japan’s Topix rose 0.1%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.2%
- The Shanghai Composite rose 1%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.7%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at US$1.1694
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.04 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8292 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.3% to US$72,211.29
- Ether fell 0.7% to US$2,198.29
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.29%
- Japan’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.420%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.94%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to US$98.55 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
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