Following a sharp rebound in the markets and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, a third of strategists anticipate a W-shaped recovery, projecting another economic decline on the horizon, according to a survey done by Natixis Investment Managers.
The survey, which was released on September 9, surveyed 36 strategists, economists, and portfolio managers representing Natixis Investment Managers, 14 of Natixis’ affiliated asset managers and Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking.
Esty Dwek, the head of global macro strategy and solutions at Natixis Investment Managers says, “While there is consensus across the group that the road to recovery will be bumpy, it’s certainly not clear which way the markets will go into the end of the year”.
The W-shaped recovery sentiment is shared by 47% of respondents who anticipate a rally, while the other 53% see a selloff happening.
As a result, about 44% of respondents believe that while the recovery is under way, the markets are likely to stall in the beginning. And despite the swift recovery in the stock markets, only 2.8% of experts see the economy following suit.
About 86% of those surveyed gave Covid-19 the leading high-risk rating “above 5” for an average risk rank of 7.5 amid warnings from public health experts that a potential second wave might take place across the globe with flu season looming in the fall and early winter.
According to the survey, respondents are also generally unconcerned about the market risks posed by foreign interference in the upcoming US presidential election in November with an average score of 3.5. However, Natixis strategists are anticipating political volatility and election drama.
Respondents are also largely optimistic on a Joe Biden win (78%), but there is concern on how any result will be received by the American public.
Half of respondents expect the results will be contested regardless, and the other half predict the election will result in social unrest.
About 75% of respondents believe that a Biden election will be better for global trade and geopolitical risk, while 61% surveyed give the advantage to the Democratic party on the global economy.
However, more than half (or 58%) believe that the re-election of incumbent Donald Trump would be better for equities, given prospects for lower corporate taxes and a pro-business perception that’s associated with Trump.
Technology emerged as a clear market winner among those surveyed, with 94% expecting the healthcare sector to become even stronger for policymakers going forward.
Interest in environmental, social, governance (ESG) investing had also grown substantially, which gives this approach a winner for 91% of the strategists surveyed. About 75% of the group believe that ESG investing will become more prominent or mainstream as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.
The strategists have also identified the top losers as traditional entertainment (85%), travel (83%), and energy (77%).
