Enterprise Singapore (ESG) has increased its forecasts for total merchandise trade to +13.0% to +14.0% and +7.0% to +8.0% for its non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in 2021 on Aug 11.
The higher estimates were due to better-than-expected growth in the 2Q2021 due to favourable sector-specific growth, namely in electronics, specialised machinery and petrochemicals.
NODX of petrochemicals, particularly, grew at a faster pace after declining amid a global downcycle in 2019 and 2020.
NODX increased by 10.1% y-o-y in 2Q2021, following a 9.7% y-o-y growth in the 1Q2021.
Electronic NODX rose 15.7% y-o-y during the quarter, which was led by personal computers (PCs), integrated circuits (ICs) and diodes & transistors, which expanded by 65.1%, 7.8% and 45.9% respectively.
Non-electronic NODX grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 2Q2021, led by expansions in contributions from specialised machinery, petrochemicals and primary chemicals at 51.3%, 56.7% and 78.9% respectively.
During the 2Q2021, NODX to the top markets grew on the whole, with the biggest contributors to the NODX growth being China (+39.6%), Hong Kong (+35.5%) and Taiwan (+27.7%). Conversely, exports to the US, Japan and the EU27 declined during the period.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, NODX fell by 4.0% after the 17.7% increase in the previous quarter.
Electronic NODX increased 2.0% q-o-q while non-electronic NODX fell 5.8% q-o-q.
Non-oil re-exports (NORX) grew 26.6% y-o-y in 2Q2021, up from the 13.7% y-o-y rise in the 1Q2021.
The growth was mainly attributed to the higher shipments of electronics, while non-electronic re-exports also grew.
Electronic NORX increased 27.7% y-o-y in the second quarter, extending the 27.5% growth in 1Q2021. This was due to higher re-exports of ICs, telecommunications equipment and parts of PCs at +31.0%, +19.0% and +26.5% y-o-y respectively.
Non-electronic NORX expanded by 25.4% y-o-y in the 2Q2021, following the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. This was mainly led by higher re-exports of non-monetary gold (+199.7%), specialised machinery (+64.0%) and alcoholic beverage (+79.3%).
NORX to the top markets rose as a whole in 2Q2021 with the Japan being the only exception. This was led by China (+41.6%), Indonesia (+40.6%) and Hong Kong (+34.4%).
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, NORX rose by 2.8% in 2Q2021 following the 11.4% growth in 1Q2021.
Electronic re-exports grew by 3.5% while non-electronic NORX rose by 1.9% in 2Q2021.
See also: Singapore's NODX expands 15.9% in June on low base; growth mainly due to non-electronics
Oil domestic exports rose by 85.6% y-o-y in 2Q2021, reversing from the 19.3% contraction in the previous quarter.
In volume terms, oil domestic exports fell by 3.2% in the same quarter, easing from the 27.2% decline in 1Q2021.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, oil domestic exports rose by 16.2%.
Oil re-exports fell by 5.4% y-o-y in 2Q2021 following the 10.1% y-o-y increase in 1Q2021.
In volume terms, oil re-exports contracted by 52.3% in 2Q2021, lower than the 10.0% contraction marked in 1Q2021.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, oil re-exports fell by 34.3% in 2Q2021 from the 7.8% expansion in 1Q2021.
Total merchandise trade rose by 27.3% y-o-y in 2Q2021, expanding from the 4.9% growth in 1Q2021.
Oil trade expanded by 98.4% in 2Q2021 amid higher oil prices, while non-oil trade grew by 18.9% in 2Q2021, extending the 9.5% growth in 1Q2021.
Total services trade grew by 9.3% y-o-y in 2Q2021 to $124.6 billion, with services exports and imports expanding by 10.3% and 8.2% respectively.
The growth in services exports was due to an increase in business services (+15.5%), transport services exports (+6.4%) and receipts from financial services (+8.2%).
According to ESG, the outlook for global economic activity remains positive despite the risks and uncertainties that still remain.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained 2021’s global output growth at 6.0% on the back of a vaccine-driven recovery.
The growth forecast for some of Singapore’s key trade partners such as the US and Euro area were upgraded while Asean-5 and China were downgraded.
The IMF has also upgraded its 2020 growth forecast for global trade volumes to +9.7% in 2021, up 1.3 percentage-points from the previous forecast.
Merchandise trade is expected to lead growth by broadening from pandemic-related purchases, while services trade recovers more slowly due to subdued cross-border travel.
