Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee Shun Rong of Maybank Securities (Maybank) similarly keep their NDOX forecast of 4% and their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.2%, which they note is higher than the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) revised forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
Following July’s 4.6% y-o-y decline in non-domestic oil exports (NODX), economists, although mixed on their forecasts for the full year, agree that the looming threat of US tariffs provides an uncertain outlook. On a m-o-m basis, July’s NODX fell by 6%
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research’s (UOB) Alvin Liew, while maintaining his 2025 NODX forecast at between 1.0% to 3.0%, has “reduced confidence” over his projections given the fluid and uncertain tariff situation.
