Potential political discontinuities
We have two major political concerns — Ukraine and North Korea. As winter gives way to spring in the Ukraine theatre of war, the stalemate of the past few months is likely to break — and a more dangerous phase of the war could be upon us. Ukraine’s leaders and their Western backers fear that the longer the stalemate lasts, the greater the risk that political backing for Ukraine in the US and Europe could weaken. Hence their sense of urgency to quickly put Russia on the defensive.
The past year has been unsettled, but there is more to come that could rattle us. The near miss we just had with another financial crisis was a warning. Financial markets may seem to be calming down now after the latest upheaval, but let’s not forget that the sharpest monetary tightening in recent times has up-ended the world of finance: as rates continue to rise, more convulsions could well be triggered. And, because the war in Europe has made the world a more unstable place, there is likely to be more political turbulence as well.
In short, global politics and finance remain in a fluid condition. The straws in the wind point to impending changes, in geopolitics, policy-making, and the economy that could keep us all on edge.
