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Indonesia: Can the quiet outperformer keep on surprising?

Manu Bhaskaran
Manu Bhaskaran • 9 min read
Indonesia: Can the quiet outperformer keep on surprising?
Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto will run for the presidency for the third time in 2024. His candidacy is likely to draw strong support from some of Indonesia’s most conservative regions like West Java, West Sumatra and Aceh / Photo: Bloomberg
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Indonesia today stands out for its relative calm in a world awash with troubles. This contrasts sharply with previous periods of stress in global financial markets, such as the taper tantrums in 2013 when Indonesia’s rupiah tanked with other emerging market currencies.

Despite the war in Ukraine, a slower world economy, an energy and food price shock of epic proportions, aggressive monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve Bank and China’s poor economic health, Indonesia has done better than its peers in terms of economic growth, inflation and currency stability.

We believe this improvement is the product of a structural improvement in Indonesia. In particular, Indonesia’s growth potential has been enhanced, while its resilience to external shocks has also been strengthened.

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